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Methods of Weather Forecasting |
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| Method | Description |
| Persistence (Simplest) | Assumes that current conditions persist. Tends to be very accurate for short periods of time (hours) then accuracy declines. |
| Steady-State or Trend | Assumes that surface weather systems continue to move as they are now moving without changes in strength. Quite accurate for few hours |
| Analogue |
Looks for similar situations in the past (especially the
recent past). Forecasts are based on the assumption that system
evolution will be the same as it has been in similar situations in the past. |
| Weather Type |
Statistical analysis used for long-range forecast up to a
month in advance. Current and recent weather patterns are categorized
by type, then dealt with using analogue approach. (Not useful for detailed, short-term forecast.) |
| Climatological | Based on long-term patterns. (Not useful for detailed or short-term forecast.) |