| Forecasting the Motions of Cyclones and Anticyclones Using Surface and Upper-Level Charts | |
| Procedure | Comments |
| (1) Assume a steady rate of motion | Usually works very well for times shorter than 6 hours |
| (2) Assume cyclones will move parallel to isobars in the warm sector | Of limited
application, not applicable to anticyclones or to lows with no well-defined warm sector |
| (3) Use isallobars.
Assume cyclones will move towards point of most rapidly falling pressure and anticyclones will move towards point of most rapidly rising pressure |
Use isallobars based on the preceding three-hour period |
| (4) Consider average
direction of motion for such systems at the current time of year |
Might also consider the motion of recent similar systems |
| (5) Assume the motion will be in the direction of 500-mb winds | Need upper-level charts to do this |
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Other
Considerations: (1) Strong, slow-moving highs often "block" the motions of cyclones, slowing them down, weakening them and deflecting them to either the right or the left. (2) Lows tend to accelerate until they occlude, then they slow down. (3) Shifting upper-level winds often indicate cold or warm advection. If the wind direction increases in azimuth with increasing height, the trend is known as "veering" and indicates warm advection, e.g., a westerly surface flow with a northwest flow at middle levels and a northerly flow at upper levels. If the wind direction decreases in azimuth with increasing height, the trend is known as "backing" and indicates cold advection. Warning: Such changes may not mean much locally because of the eddying caused by the Wasatch Range. |
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